Ulster University

Academic Institute

Magda Bucholc

The Public Health Agency

Yes

E087

Statistical authorities have reported that more people have died than expected in European countries since spring 2022. There are many possible explanations for this, including the complex effects of the flu season being absent during 2022. There is a need to investigate the situation to understand whether there is currently an increase in deaths in Northern Ireland. Some reasons that have been proposed are: the longer-term direct consequences of COVID-19 infection; delays seeking healthcare, resulting in late diagnosis of serious diseases, such as cancer, which might then be harder to treat; missed opportunities for preventive care such as medicines to lower cholesterol or blood pressure due to changes in healthcare access and use; and pressures in ambulances, emergency departments and hospitals resulting in delayed urgent care. Disrupted or delayed access to screening, diagnosis, and treatment may have changed the trends in mortality that were previously improving. In this study, we aim to investigate the changes in mortality in Northern Ireland, during, compared to before the pandemic and examine the associations between the death and demographic, clinical, and healthcare-related factors.

The project was requested by the Department of Health and is commissioned by the Public Health Agency for the purpose of investigating a potentially concerning situation of excess deaths. The public will benefit as the knowledge generated by this investigation will be used to either give assurance if there is no change in mortality; or to inform and direct work to prevent deaths if a concern is real.

06/11/2023

TRE