UK Renal Registry

ILD146

Many NHS Trusts are reporting challenges in meeting the need for dialysis. There is concern in a number of regions that demand will outgrow capacity. This project will (1) Look for trends and changes over the past 15 years in: · rates of kidney failure, · types of people who get kidney failure, · types of kidney replacement therapy, · how long people have to wait, · how long people live, and · kidney transplantation to try to find potential factors that may explain the higher demand. (2) Investigate whether there is a step-change in any of the above factors post-COVID. (3) Update Paul Roderick’s simulation model (published in 2004) which was developed to model the future demand for kidney replacement therapy in England. This will help us understand what has changed over the past 15 years that means that there is now a concern at the front line that demand is increasing. We will be able to find out whether the changes are in the types of people who need dialysis, in healthcare practices, or in both. This will also help us to update the previous prediction model, which can be adapted to look at local data if needed. While there is ongoing work in London looking at the impact of workforce shortages on haemodialysis capacity, there is no national data collection on this topic. Also, looking only at haemodialysis ignores home based dialysis and excellent transplant care, which may help alleviate shortfalls in dialysis capacity. This project has a much wider scope and is therefore not a duplication of existing work.