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Examining the change in risk of stroke and bleeding over time in patients with atrial fibrillation: A population-based cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Safe People

Organisation name

University of Liverpool

Organisation sector

Academic Institute

Applicant name(s)

Deirdre Lane - Chief Investigator - University of LiverpoolDavid Stevens - Corresponding Applicant - University of LiverpoolGregory Lip - Collaborator - University of LiverpoolRuwanthi Kolamunnage-Dona - Collaborator - University of LiverpoolStephanie Harrison - Collaborator - University of Liverpool

Safe Projects

Project ID

CPRD37

Lay summary

Atrial fibrillation is a common irregular heart rhythm (arrhythmia) and increases a person’s risk of stroke five-fold. The Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway has been developed to help make a clear plan of care for patients and clinicians. It follows three steps: A - Avoid strokes; B - Better symptom management; C - Cardiovascular risk management. The ‘A’ part of the pathway is anticoagulation medication, therefore, the risk of stroke must be balanced against the risk of bleeding, but a person’s risk can change over time.

Technical summary

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and increases a person’s risk of stroke five-fold. Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are recommended for the majority of individuals with AF to reduce their risk of stroke; however, anticoagulation also increases the risk of major bleeding. The CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED risk scores are advocated to assess risk for stroke and bleeding, respectively, in clinical practice. Both stroke and bleeding risk have the potential to change over time as patients age and develop new comorbidities. The change in CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores have been shown to perform better than baseline or follow-up scores in predicting stroke and major bleeding.

Latest approval date

18/05/2021

Safe Data

Dataset(s) name

HES Admitted Patient Care

ONS Death Registration Data

Patient Level Index of Multiple Deprivation

Safe Setting

Access type

Release