The Health Economics Unit at Midlands and Lancashire CSU (MLCSU)

=LEFT(J131,6)

This research is being performed to draw out implications for future policy and planning of NHS & Social Care.

The REAL Centre has been established to provide new evidence and analysis that will help health and social care policymakers consider the long term implications of their funding, design and delivery decisions. The HEU are working in partnership with the centre to answer the following questions by analysing regional datasets such as DiscoverNOW. • What is the distribution of combined health and social care service use and costs across the population over a single year and over longer periods (e.g. 3-5 years, from age 65, over a lifetime)? Method: Produce Graphical Data Analysis to understand patterns of use. •How does this vary for people with different long-term conditions, types of social care need and socio-demographic characteristics (e.g. age, ethnicity, deprivation)? Method: Exploratory data analysis to understand the relation between conditions and social care use. A predictive model could tell us which conditions are associated with higher use of social care and if conditions are enough to accurately predict service use. • How is this split between different types of care? E.g. primary or secondary health care /medicines etc. and formal (home care, residential, nursing etc) and unpaid social care Method: Graphical Data Analysis to explore the split in the types of care. • How do these costs persist or change from year-to-year or over the life course? Method: Exploratory data analysis to understand the trend of social care spend during the years of data available. We will attempt to build a model to forecast the spend on social care. We will evaluate the quality of this model and discuss for how long this model can provide accurate forecasts. •What are the characteristics of those individuals with the highest and most persistent costs? Method: Exploratory data analysis to understand the relationship between characteristics and high costs.

18/08/2022

TRE