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The Scotland Coronavirus Model (SCoVMod)

Safe People

Organisation name

University of Edinburgh

Organisation sector

Academic Institute

Applicant name(s)

Rowland Kao

Safe Projects

Project ID

eDRIS-2021-0007

Lay summary

The “Scotland Coronavirus Model” is a computer simulation describing the spread of COVID19. It will be used to inform Health Protection Scotland about the possible trajectory of future Scottish COVID-19 patterns (no. infections, hospitalisations, deaths, and recoveries) under different scenarios of disease control (e.g. easing lockdown restrictions by region, re -opening of schools etc.). SCoVMod uses human population density, age structure and commuter movements to predict how COVID-19 infection would spread in space and time. Past COVID-19 infection patterns are then used to identify model parameters that best explain them and to estimate uncertainty, also providing estimates of the hidden burden of infection in the population. Using publicly available data on COVID-19 deaths recorded by Health Board, SCoVMod generates a statistically consistent fit over time. This fit shows that the mean index of multiple deprivation index (SIMD) per Health Board is an important predictor of COVID-19 death rates. Thus substantially better predictions would be expected when using COVID-19 data at the same spatial resolution as the SIMD (i.e. “Data Zone” as used in the Scotland Census). In addition, data for the number of admissions, ICU patients and deaths per day in hospital will allow for better identification of where existing cases are being distributed to, and therefore under our model projections, where the burden to the healthcare system burden may lie. Source: Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care

Latest approval date

12/05/2020

Safe Data

Dataset(s) name

COVID19 test

NRS Deaths

SICSAG (Scottish Intensive Care Society Audit Group)

COVID19 Vaccination

Safe Setting

Access type

Release